Mitt Romney: The Republican's John Kerry?
Posted Jan 2, 2012By Thomas Mills
Eight years ago, a crowded Democratic field headed into the Iowa Caucuses with visions of defeating a weak President George W. Bush in November. The pre-primary season had been contentious, with various personalities emerging as leaders throughout the late summer and fall of 2003.
John Kerry was initially considered the frontrunner and choice of much of the Democratic establishment. However, his campaign suffered several organizational setbacks and he failed to excite any major constituency. Upstart Howard Dean captured the imagination of young progressives and former House Speaker Dick Gephardt garnered the bulk of union support. In addition, first term Senator John Edwards brought a populist message and plenty of sex appeal. Other candidates included a retired general, former vice-presidential nominee and Rev. Al Sharpton.
Going into the caucuses, most pundits and polls saw the Iowa race as a battle between the rebel Dean and the Midwesterner Gephardt. However, when the votes were counted, Kerry came from out-of-the-blue to win handily, trailed by Edwards. Dean and Gephardt, who had waged vicious attacks on one another, trailed significantly.
Following the caucuses, Gephardt dropped out, Dean screamed and Edwards stayed in long enough to make himself look vice-presidential. The win in Iowa shot Kerry into first place, giving him momentum and a significant fundraising advantage. Within two months, he clinched enough delegates to secure the nomination. What he didn't secure, though, was any enthusiasm for his candidacy because, with the exception of the establishment types, Kerry was everybody's third choice. In November, the enthusiasm gap showed and the vulnerable incumbent president went on to a second term.
In Iowa tomorrow, we'll see if a similar scenario doesn't play out for Republicans. Nobody really wants Mitt Romney to be the nominee. They just can't really see nominating anybody else.