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Nov. 2 results should help, not hurt, Charlotte convention bid

From Democratic political consultant Thomas Mills:

Recent articles have questioned whether the election results in North Carolina have diminished Charlotte's chances of attracting the Democratic National Convention in 2012. If anything, the results should have increased the odds. Despite losses here, Democrats in North Carolina performed better than those in most other swing states, including the ones vying for the convention.

In a convention search, parties often look at the symbolic importance of the host state. In 2008, Democrats chose Denver, signaling an interest in the West. Republicans chose St. Paul, Minn., showing that they would compete in the traditionally Blue state. The choice of Charlotte would show that Democrats are serious about competing in one of the country's most important swing states.

Instead of scaring Democrats off, the 2010 election should have reconfirmed that North Carolina is a solid swing state that deserves serious attention. It's still one of the few states with a majority Democratic congressional delegation and the 2010 Senate contest was closer than any race for a Republican-held seat.

In federal races, compared with other 2008 battleground states, the damage in North Carolina was less severe. At most, Democrats will lose only one congressional seat. While Elaine Marshall lost the Senate race by 12 points to Richard Burr, she was closer than Senate candidates in states such as Missouri and Ohio, where candidates had much more support from national Democrats and their allied interest groups.

In North Carolina, the Republican wave was aided by a very low turnout. Only 43 percent of registered voters showed up, the least in a Senate contest in 12 years and the second lowest in state history. In contrast, the 2008 election yielded a 70 percent turnout and polls this year showed Democrats doing better when all registered voters were tested, rather than when only likely voters were polled. That indicates that in presidential years, Democrats will do better.

In addition, Electoral College votes, along with congressional seats, are moving south and west. The traditional Democratic equation for electing a president or holding the House of Representatives, which focuses on the Northeast, West Coast and swing states in the Midwest, leaves less and less room for error.

North Carolina gained a 13th congressional seat after the 2000 census and may gain another this year, giving it 16 electoral votes. The state grew by almost 1.5 million people and most of the growth occurred along the I-85 corridor running through the middle of the state. These high-growth areas are where the Democratic strength lies. Among the ten most populous counties in North Carolina, a single point separated the Senate candidates though Burr outspent Marshall by more than 5 to 1.

North Carolina is one of the nation's fastest growing states and increasingly identifies itself more with the new economy than the old Confederacy. The lesson national Democrats should take from 2010 is that North Carolina is more an opportunity than a liability. Putting the 2012 convention in Charlotte would send a signal that the Democratic Party understands the changing national environment and is willing to invest in the future rather than hang on to the past.

Thomas Mills is a partner in the Democratic consulting firm Bates and Mills Consulting. Mills served as general consultant to the Marshall for U.S. Senate campaign.